Why Small Shocks Become Big Problems and How to Stop Them

Every shock has two lives.

The first is where it starts in wider systems like geopolitics, economics, climate, social and tech.

The second is what happens when it enters your organisation.

Most resilience work focuses on the first. But many of the costs — and opportunities — sit in the second.

Once inside a supply chain, disruption moves through propagation pathways: the channels that connect operations, partners and decisions. Understanding those pathways changes how leaders act. It shows where intervention matters most, and where small actions can stop big cascades.

From system to structure

In our last post, we looked at how the systems–exposure lens reveals where shocks begin and how they approach.

Propagation starts when one of those shocks crosses the boundary, when system-level stress becomes a firm-level trigger.

That could be:

• A delayed inbound shipment that triggers overtime.
• A cyber incident that disrupts planning data.
• A delayed customer payment that strains cash flow.
• A policy shift that changes compliance workloads.

In each case, the initial event is only as important than how it travels next.

That movement, or propagation, determines whether a disruption stays local or turns into a crisis.

The four propagation pathways

Every supply chain has four major flows through which disruption spreads.

1️⃣ Physical — movement of goods, capacity and people.

• Examples: congestion, mode switches, resource bottlenecks.
• Control points: buffers, alternates, flexible capacity.

2️⃣ Informational — movement of data, signals and decisions.

• Examples: forecast errors, cyber events, delayed reporting.
• Control points: data quality, fallback systems, clarity of authority.

3️⃣ Financial — movement of cash, credit and counterparties.

• Examples: late payments, insurance lag, liquidity strain.
• Control points: pre-authorised limits, cash triggers, credit controls.

4️⃣ Reputational — movement of perception, trust and scrutiny.

• Examples: stakeholder reaction, media cycles, policy response.
• Control points: proactive communication, alignment on messaging, response thresholds.

These pathways interact.

A single trigger can move through all four within days. A cyber breach becomes a service failure, a financial delay, and a reputational hit.

Seeing how disruption moves is the first step to stopping it.

Why propagation matters

Propagation is where disruption multiplies.

A small issue, handled late or out of sequence, can expand across the network before it’s visible in the data.

That’s why the Stresses → Triggers → Crises model includes this middle layer. The “Trigger” stage is where the motion happens.

You can’t buffer against every shock. But you can shape what happens next.

Understanding how disruption moves gives you:

• Faster diagnosis. You see how issues travel before they fully form.
• Cleaner interventions. You act where the leverage is highest, not where the noise is loudest.
• Lower compounding costs. You prevent the same problem from reappearing downstream in a different form.

A practical example

Imagine a manufacturer that experiences a one-week production delay at a key supplier.

• Physical pathway: The supplier reallocates limited capacity to higher-margin clients. Your inbound materials slip. You switch to premium freight to protect service.
• Informational pathway: Manual rescheduling introduces planning errors. Demand signals inflate safety stock.
• Financial pathway: Airfreight charges lift cash burn. A distributor delays payment, citing stockouts. Treasury raises the weekly buffer, squeezing other projects.
• Reputational pathway: A key customer misses a delivery window. The account team absorbs the pressure.

On a risk register, this is one line: “supplier delay.”

On a propagation map, it’s four connected flows with six control points and three early switches that could have limited the damage.

That is the difference between managing events and managing systems.

How to start mapping propagation

1️⃣ Pick a recent disruption. Choose something tangible: a shortage, an outage, or a market swing.

2️⃣ Trace one step per pathway. For each, describe how the effect moved, one sentence per arrow, one verb per link.

3️⃣ Name the control point. Where could you have acted earlier? Which levers were available?

4️⃣ Write the trigger thresholds. When would you act next time? What measurable signal would prompt it?

5️⃣ Capture latency. Note how long it took between signal, decision and action. That’s your delay to improve.

The aim isn’t to map everything. It’s to see enough of the flow that you can intervene sooner next time.

What this means for operators

• Move from lists to links. Risk registers show points, propagation maps show movement.
• Standardise pathways. Use the same four channels across teams to align decisions.
• Fund solutions. Build pre-approved options that trigger before issues multiply.
• Track delay. Treat signal-to-action time as a resilience metric.

Resilience is not just about what enters the supply chain. It’s about how it moves once inside.

When you can see the motion, you can change the outcome.

Book a 30-minute discovery call with The Signal House to explore how propagation mapping can turn hidden costs into early control.