Five Warning Signs Your Supply Chain Is in Polycrisis Mode

Polycrisis is interaction, not accumulation. Several small stresses reinforce each other and create non-linear effects. This post shows five signs that your risk approach is stuck in lists, and how risk maps help build real supply chain resilience.

Polycrisis is what happens when disruptions interact. Small stresses connect across physical, informational, financial and reputational pathways. Lists miss those links. Maps reveal them and show where to act with effect.

1) The risk register keeps growing, yet decisions do not change

You hold a long list of threats. You colour the heat map. You add owners. Operations carry on unchanged.

What it means: the organisation tracks nodes and ignores flows. There is no hypothesis for how trouble travels.

Quick test: ask for a one-page risk map for any top risk. If you cannot see arrows, triggers and switches, you are in list mode.

First fix: sketch the stress. Name the trigger. Trace one hop per pathway. Use one verb per arrow.

2) Incidents repeat one hop downstream

You fix a port delay. Costs return via premium air. You stop a cyber alert. Forecast error rises next cycle. The label changes. The mechanism does not.

What it means: teams treat symptoms, not propagation. Each function optimises locally and pushes cost to the next link.

Quick test: pull the last five incidents. Mark the next team touched within seven days. If three or more repeat, you have a propagation gap.

First fix: on every incident close, add a “next hop” note. Capture the pathway, the owner and one prevention switch.

3) Decision latency rises as manual patches spread

Meetings multiply. Threads explode. Spreadsheets appear. Workarounds grow while approvals lag.

What it means: the system lacks pre-authorised options. Information and authority do not meet in time. Latency grows at each hand-off.

Quick test: measure time from signal → decision → action for the last disruption. If the middle step dominates, switches are missing.

First fix: write three switches you can execute inside 48 hours. Tie each to a trigger and a pathway. Pre-approve scope and spend.

4) Finance and operations tell different stories

Service improves while cash worsens. Or the reverse. Premium transport costs appear two weeks after the fix. A distributor extends terms without warning.

What it means: the financial pathway is missing from the map. Operational recovery hides liquidity and margin aftershocks.

Quick test: take the last disruption. Ask treasury for the weekly cash view. If it surprises operations, add the pathway to the map.

First fix: add two explicit triggers with cash effects. Examples: aged receivables breach a threshold. Premium transport exceeds a set percent of move cost.

5) Playbooks exist, but there are no switches

You have a binder of steps. You do not have specific moves tied to thresholds. Escalation becomes the default answer.

What it means: playbooks describe activity, not choice. They lack the link from trigger to decision to pre-cleared option.

Quick test: pick one scenario. Find the line that says “If X crosses Y for Z hours, do A, owned by B.” If you cannot, you have a playbook gap.

First fix: convert steps into switches. Name the trigger, the option and the owner. Add a simple evidence check to avoid false positives.

Why these signs appear together

Polycrisis couples systems. Physical capacity depends on information quality. Information quality shapes cash. Cash shapes supplier behaviour. Reputation shapes access and policy. Treat items as independent and the system punishes you. The penalties arrive later and elsewhere. Registers grow while outcomes stall. That is systemic risk at work.

Mini-case: one small trigger, wide effects

A tier-two component issue adds two weeks.

Physical: a supplier reallocates capacity. Confirmed orders become soft holds. Transport mix shifts to air.

Informational: a temporary spec change arrives late. ERP lag hides it from planning. Forecast error grows at SKU level.

Financial: premium costs rise. A distributor delays payment. Treasury raises weekly cash buffers.

Reputational: a key account misses a milestone and demands priority supply.

The list says “supplier disruption.”

The map says: raise the cut-over threshold for air on two SKUs, trigger at day four, owner transport. Send a clean spec and ETA message to planning within two hours. Set a temporary allocation rule for top customers. Decision time drops. The blast radius shrinks. You avoid paying twice.

What this means for operators

• Model the flow. Trace stress to trigger to crisis across each pathway.
• Fund switches. Build option value with pre-authorised moves.
• Track latency. Measure signal to decision to action. Compress it each quarter.
• Standardise language. Use STC, pathways and E×C across teams to reduce friction.

Book a 30-minute discovery call with The Signal House and we will outline a pilot that fits your network, partners and governance.